CoStar’s U.S. Industrial Projections Remain Unchanged Through 2026

U.S. industrial projections remained unchanged in a just-released forecast from CoStar, the leading global provider of online real estate marketplaces, information and analytics in the property markets.

Despite the return of positive net absorption in the third quarter of 2025, the near-term U.S. industrial outlook remains consistent with the previous forecast, which projected a rise in vacancy rates through 2026 and a fourth consecutive year of moderating demand.

The national industrial vacancy rate increased to 7.5% in the third quarter – its highest level in over a decade – and is expected to peak at 7.9% in the third quarter of 2026. While under-construction activity is tapering, a backlog of speculative supply set to deliver over the next couple of quarters will continue to put pressure on occupancy.

Absorption is still expected to stay positive in 2025 but remains 50% below 2024 levels, with rent growth near 13-year lows at an average of 1.0% for the year. The metric is expected to edge lower before reaccelerating.

“Leading indicators point to continued weakness in freight market activity, particularly through the second half of the year,” said Juan Arias, national director of industrial analytics at CoStar Group. “Sluggish leasing velocity and ongoing trade uncertainty lend more weight to downside risks, but possible upside risks include a potential easing of inflationary pressures and continued resilient consumer spending.”

The full forecast can be found here.

For more information about the company and its products and services, please visit costargroup.com.