HomeServices of America Presents Its 2026 National Housing Outlook

HomeServices of America, a leading provider of homeownership services, released its much-anticipated 2026 National Housing Outlook.

The report, which outlines key factors impacting the residential real estate market, including inventory, mortgage rates, consumer sentiment and more, highlights that 2026 will be a year where we see increased stability in the housing market.

As we pass the midway point of the 2020’s, the residential real estate market has so far weathered a pandemic, substantive inflation, increasing mortgage rates and inventory constraints from both lack of sellers and lack of new construction, as well as a residential real estate brokerage world in the midst of its own transitions.

That said, the report notes that buyers will have more choices compared to recent years where lines at open houses and consistent multiple bids on listings were the norm. For sellers, the good news is substantive equity from years of steady price increases across almost every region in the country.

“We are on a path to stability in the national residential real estate market after quite a few years of turbulence of one type or another,” said Chris Kelly, President & CEO of HomeServices of America. “Our report’s intent is to touch on the key facets buyers and sellers will be evaluating before making decisions. It is practical, meaningful content.”

Key findings include:

• After surging from historic lows in 2020-2021, to decades-long highs in 2023-2024, consumers are accepting that the generationally low mortgage rates were an anomaly and rates will be hovering in the 6% rage for the foreseeable future.
• Scarcity has been the word for housing inventory due to a number of factors – decades of underbuilding (estimates on the national housing deficit are in the 4.5 million homes range, with only 2 percent of homes in the U.S. built after 2020), rapid household formation and extremely low homeowner mobility, in particular over the past five years. In 2026 HomeServices expects measurable progress with steady new construction and a consistent flow of new listings.
• Home pricing will be returning to moderation, after double-digit appreciation from 2020-2022, and sharp deceleration from 2023-2024. HomeServices expects that 2026 will likely be more predictable, similar to the pre-Covid real estate market, with home prices continuing to rise, but at a pace more aligned with historical averages, which are 2.5 to 3.5 percent.
• Affordability will continue to be a challenge in 2026, with wage growth cooling, while mortgage rates normalize around the 6% range.
• Total home sales in 2026 will be reflective of a market in recovery. With mortgage rates easing and inventory improving, buyers are saying that they are ready to re-engage.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects 4.3 to 4.5 million existing home sales during 2026, an improvement from the lows of 2023 and 2024, but still below the historical annual pace of 5.0 to 5.5 million homes. The recent peak was 6.12 million during the 2021 pandemic boom, with 2025 ending at approximately 4.1 million sales. We expect to see slight improvements in 2026 over 2025.
• The issue of consumer perception vs actual market conditions will continue to impact the residential real estate market. Many homeowners still anchor their expectations on what a neighbor, friend or relative’s home sold for in 2022 or 2023. Those prices were not sustainable, making the need for a real estate professional to guide pricing through factual metrics all the more compelling.
• There are clear regional variations in the housing market. The west and mountain states will continue to see lower appreciation; the south will continue to experience strong population inflows, which will facilitate moderate price growth; the tight supply in the northeast will support price increases; with the Midwest remaining the nation’s affordability anchor.
• There will be capital gains constraints in 2026, as homeowners with substantive equity in their homes will be evaluating whether selling is a financially beneficial step for them.
• Millennials are at peak homebuying age (albeit late to the market compared to boomers and gen x); gen z is starting to dip into the market, although they are often student loan burdened, but with a strong belief in homeownership; boomers continue to be the epicenter of the generational wealth transition, and that includes residential real estate.
• From an aesthetic standpoint, the 2026 color palettes will reflect neutrals with depth, including warm grays, smoky taupe and balanced creams; deep accents, organic materials and textural contrast.
• Sustainability and energy efficiency are top-of-mind, with consumers renovating aging homes with modern upgrades, many using solar tax incentives.

“We’re excited to offer this robust resource for both agents and consumers,” adds Gretchen Rosenberg, HSoA Executive Liaison for Industry Affairs and Kentwood Real Estate CEO. “We plan to issue a revised edition twice a year going forward.”

“The year 2026 will be ultimately marked by a return to normalcy,” concludes Kelly. “We do not expect it to be shaped by any extremes but by steadier economic and demographic forces.”

For access to the full report, click here.