Nonresidential Building Spending to Grow Through 2019, but Cautious Outlook for 2020

Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4 percent through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction Forecast online.

“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts       2019        2020        

Overall  nonresidential building                                     4.4%          2.4%        

Commercial/industrial  total                                         3.5%          0.6%        

Hotels                                                                               3.9%        -0.7%        

Office  space                                                                    5.1%           1.2%        

Retail                                                                                1.9%          0.4%        

Industrial  total                                                               4.8%          2.7%        

Institutional  total                                                          4.8%          2.9%        

Public  safety                                                                  6.8%         4.9%        

Healthcare  facilities                                                      4.0%         3.6%        

Education                                                                        5.5%          4.1%        

Amusement  / recreation                                              4.4%         0.6%        

Religious                                                                        -2.6%        -1.2%        

About AIA

Founded in 1857, AIA consistently works to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through more than 200 international, state and local chapters, AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public wellbeing.

AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation, and world. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards.